Good morning folks,
Angst. Fear. Despair. Dire. Nausea. Disgust. Panic…. These are all words used in stories this morning to describe Democrats’ current mood. Politico’s Glenn Thrush writes, “Some progressives seem to be going into primal panic mode — to the profound annoyance of the Democratic professional political class and an Obama campaign predicting a rebound at next Tuesday’s debate in Long Island.”
The New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny and Jim Rutenberg sarcastically note, “The Big Bird ad may not have inspired universal confidence among Democrats,” while getting Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and a member of Team Obama’s national finance team to open up a bit more: “Dire is the wrong word, but I do think it is a wake-up call,” he said. “I wouldn’t use the word ‘panic,’ but there is a sense that everything the campaign told us about the need to continue the fight is absolutely true,” said Justin Buell, a member of Mr. Obama’s national finance council in San Francisco.” In other words… PANIC.
Democrats are getting so antsy that The Guardian coined yesterday as, “Freakout Tuesday,”noting that “Mitt Romney’s poll ratings soar as Democrats panic,” and asking that, “someone make sure Andrew Sullivan isn’t near an open window.” The Atlantic’s Elspeth Reeve notes, “It’s not so much that liberal panic is unfounded, but that they are being so open about it. It’s a case of when keeping it real goes wrong.” Indeed.
Keep keeping it real my Democratic friends.
STATE OF PLAY
Scene Setter from the Chicago Sun Times’ Lynn Sweet: For the first time, Mitt Romney is ahead of Barack Obama in polls — chipping away at Obama’s hold on women voters and gaining in favorability ratings.
- IBD/ITP poll: Romney 52% Obama 34%.
- Pew poll: Romney 46% Obama 42%.
- Politico/GW poll: Romney 51% Obama 35%.
- CNN: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
- National Journal: Romney 49% Obama 41%.
WAPOST/ABC Poll – Mitt’s Better Half: There’s also smart politics behind a more prominent Ann Romney. In brand new Washington Post-ABC News polling, nearly six in 10 Americans now view her in a favorable light — a number that has soared in recent months even as those who regard her unfavorably has stagnated.
- Nearly six in 10 Americans now view her in a favorable light — a number that has soared in recent months even as those who regard her unfavorably has stagnated.
- Since April, Ann Romney’s favorable ratings have shot up from 43 percent among voters to 56 percent now as people have become more familiar with her. Her unfavorable ratings remain largely unchanged.
- Among women — a group that Mitt Romney has struggled with amid an onslaught of negative ads funded by the Obama campaign — Ann Romney is thought of favorably by 53 percent, while 32 percent view her unfavorably.
State Polls Tighten
- Real Clear Politics tracking averages show Romney gaining in the crucial battleground states. Before the debate, almost every swing state survey gave the lead to Obama: Romney ahead in Florida, 0.7; North Carolina, 3; Colorado, 0.5. Obama takes the lead in Virginia, 0.3; Ohio, 0.7; Iowa, 3.2.
- CNN OHIO: Obama leads 51-47%, within margin of error. The CNN poll indicates a wide gender gap, with Romney leading by 14 points among men and Obama ahead by 22 points among women voters. “The new polls are a huge boost for Republicans, coming just a couple weeks after a string of polls made them wonder if there was any way to win without Ohio,” says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. “There is clearly movement in Ohio similar to what we see nationally. You see it in our numbers. It’s a very close race in Ohio and you feel it talking to people on the ground,” adds King, who is reporting from the Buckeye State.
- American Research Group Ohio has Romney at 48% and Obama at 47% among likely voters. ARG’s previous Ohio survey, conducted in mid-September, had Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%.
- WMUR New Hampshire shows a shrinking Obama lead at 47-41%, down from 52-37%: “With 30 days left, I think this is a jump ball,” said pollster Andy Smith. “I think the difference will still be turnout, which party is able to motivate their more marginal supporters out to the polls. And, watch where the independents go.” The poll indicates Romney’s resurgence is largely due to female voters giving him a second look. “Historically, women have been going strongly for Democrats, and they have been going very, very strongly for Obama,” Smith said. But Smith said things are shifting in a big way among female voters. Last week, the president held a 27-point lead among New Hampshire women, but that number is now down to 9.
- Rasmussen has Nevada at a 47-47% tie.
- 88% of registered voters own a cell phone of some kind. 27% of registered voters who own a cell phone have used their phone in this election campaign to keep up with news related to the election itself or to political issues in general.
- 75% use their phone to send or receive text messages, and within this group: 19% have sent text messages related to the campaign to friends, family members, or others, 5% have signed up to receive text messages directly from a candidate or other group involved in the campaign.
- Roughly half (48%) of registered voters who own a cell phone say that they have a smartphone, and within this group: 45% have used their smartphone to read other people’s comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign in general, 35% have used their smartphone during this election campaign to look up whether something they just heard about a candidate or the campaign in general was true or not, 18% have used their smartphone to post their own comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign in general
Meanwhile, before the VP debate Joe Biden seems poised to repeat same mistake that President Obama did: WHERE’S JOE? MONTHS OF NO NATIONAL TV INTERVIEWS. ABC’s Arlette Saenz reports: When Vice President Joe Biden steps on the stage at Centre College for the Vice Presidential debate in Kentucky Thursday night, it will be the first time the vice president has been on national television airwaves answering questions from a reporter since the May Meet the Press interview when he expressed his comfort with gay marriage. The vice president has engaged in no national TV interviews and few local and print interviews since that May questioning session which forced President Obama to complete his evolution on the issue sooner than expected.
BIDEN READING YOUNG GUNS BOOK! Under the tutelage of David Axelrod, the president’s chief strategist who is personally overseeing the preparations, Mr. Biden will be counseled on how to avoid Mr. Obama’s mistakes and even correct them with a more aggressive prosecution of the Republican ticket. Mr. Axelrod’s involvement highlights the stakes the Obama campaign places on the debate, and Mr. Biden has been reading “Young Guns,” the book co-written by Mr. Ryan, and practicing attack lines that Mr. Obama avoided. – New York Times, Oct. 7. It’s amusing to learn that David Axelrod has assigned Vice President Joe Biden to read Paul Ryan’s Young Guns–the book he co-wrote with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Majority Whip Eric McCarthy.
HOUSE RACE BUZZ
Democrats Prepare for Post-Pelosi World: Pelosi has steadfastly refused to say publicly what her post-Nov. 6 plans hold. Conventional wisdom maintains that should her post open up for any reason, Hoyer, who has long toiled in her shadow, would move up. Hopes that Pelosi will stay at least a while longer accompany concerns over who can match her fundraising record. The San Francisco lawmaker’s close ties to the liberal base have enabled her to be a rainmaker, something seen as difficult for the more-moderate Hoyer to match. …According to a longtime former senior Democratic aide, this prospect leaves nearly all those involved trying to perform “a delicate balance…. They must work to gain at least the implicit backing of Pelosi, but also be seen as their own person, someone who can represent a new beginning when she leaves.”
- Ick: Colleagues believe that Wasserman Schultz, who is not seen as a particular favorite of Pelosi’s, is aiming higher than the vice chairman post, given that she has developed a national fundraising network and profile as DNC chairwoman.
But she has become something of a wild card for handicappers now that she is unlikely to be offered the opportunity to stay on at the DNC or join a second Obama administration.
IL-12: Belleville Judge Files Report Against Democratic Congressional Candidate Bill Enyart: St. Clair County Associate Judge Laninya Cason is demanding an apology from Democratic congressional candidate Bill Enyart who she claims shoved her during a parade Saturday. Cason filed a police report but says she was hesitant to do so this close to the election. She herself is running for the 20th Judicial Circuit Judge position, after switching from the Democratic to Republican Party in December. “He pushed me, so when you put your hands on me, then we’re taking it out of the realm of fair political game here,” says Cason. “We’re talking about I’m a victim of battery.” She goes on to say she was not injured.
FL-22: New Poll Shows Young Gun Adam Hasner in a dead heat with Lois Frankel: While Democrat Lois Frankel has a big statistical advantage in District 22 based on party registration, a new poll released today by StPetePolls.org shows Frankel in a dead heat with Republican Adam Hasner. The poll, conducted Wednesday through Friday (much of it after the presidential debate) shows Hasner at 44.6 percent and Frankel at 44.3 percent with 11.2 percent undecided. The poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error. This comes after Hasner’s campaign reported raising $650,000 in the most recent quarter.
MA-6: Speaker Boehner Stumps for Young Gun Richard Tisei in Boston: Tisei said that the whole state would benefit by having a Republican in the House delegation, and said Tierney has been ineffective as a congressman. “We do not have anybody in the [House] majority. There are going to be tremendous decisions that are made over the next couple of years that not only impact my congressional district but also impact the commonwealth of Massachusetts. Right now there’s nobody in the room from Massachusetts, because we have an all Democratic delegation,” Tisei said. “We’ve had John Tierney in office now for 16 years. During that 16-year period he is the only member of the congressional delegation that has never sponsored a bill that’s become law. I want to have a different record of being an effective congressman and getting things done and being a problem-solver down in Washington D.C.”
CA-24: Lois Capps Troubling Israel Record: The Emergency Committee for Israel has released a TV ad highlighting the troubling foreign policy record of US Rep. Lois Capps. The 30-second spot will air hundreds of times over the next few weeks in the Congresswoman’s districts in Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Capps has been consistently hostile to Israel, and America’s alliance with the Jewish State. She has accused Israel of war crimes, refused to sign bipartisan letters of support for Israel, befriended the radical Islamist group CAIR and supported the libelous United Nations’ Goldstone Report. “If there is a member of Congress whose foreign policy record is more extreme than Lois Capps’, I cannot think of one,” said ECI executive director Noah Pollak in a statement released to media.
NH-1- Guinta Wins Debate vs Carol Shea Porter: In the hourlong debate hosted by WBIN-TV, Guinta and Shea-Porter, whom Guinta defeated in 2010, sparred over the effectiveness of the 2009 federal economic stimulus, the Affordable Care Act, energy policy and their records in Congress. The candidates took questions from a panel of reporters, including Seacoast Media Group Executive Editor Howard Altschiller, and questions from the public and members of AARP, a debate sponsor. …One of the sharpest exchanges came over the Affordable Care Act, which the Republican-led Congress and Guinta have voted to repeal more than 30 times. “We are supposed to listen to our constituents,” Guinta said about how he believes the ACA remains deeply unpopular in New Hampshire. He called for repeal to get “greater accessibility and greater affordability” and said health care cost “transparency is the solution” to achieving those goals. Shea-Porter defended her support of the ACA… Derek Dufresne, spokesman for Guinta for Congress, said his candidate clearly won the debate. “Frank Guinta strongly outperformed former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter on virtually every issue this evening. His focus on jobs, the economy, and what he would do in a second term to help put more Granite Staters back to work came through loud and clear,” he said.
THIS & THAT
Seize the day…. avoid cockroaches.