Good morning folks,
Momentum. Tonight’s VP debate is all about the fight for momentum. The National Journal sums it up this morning, “President Obama’s disastrous debate performance last week shifted momentum toward Mitt Romney, arguably for the first time since he became the Republican nominee. Pre-debate polls that had the president holding a comfortable edge, both nationally and in critical swing-states, now show the race is once again nearly deadlocked… his dominating performance nonetheless heightens interest in the undercard matchup. Another strong turn by a Republican could cement the notion that Romney and Ryan are peaking in the critical last month of the race. But a quality 90 minutes from Biden could bolster the sense that the troubles of the Obama-Biden ticket are only temporary.”
And in the New York Times this morning, John Harwood writes, “Vice-presidential debates rarely do have a significant impact on the outcome of elections. At best, observed Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist, they can increase momentum for a ticket considered to have won the first debate of the presidential nominees or serve as “a circuit breaker” for the ticket that lost.”
There’s that word again…. momentum. A gentle push in the right direction can make a big difference. We stand at a moment of sharp contrast, one candidate sharply rising, one flailing after the first debate. A Biden stumble or even an uninspired performance will reinforce that current narrative, and sway coverage over the next week in a way that would spell big trouble for Team Obama. Vice President Biden must plug the leak, even temporarily, to keep the ship afloat.
FIRST LOOK: “The YG Action Fund has launched … the first website of its kind for a Super Pac, fully encapsulating multi-faceted technologies that political websites often miss … The YG Action Fund is a Super PAC dedicated to supporting conservative candidates who hold true to the Young Guns movement … The new site was built with a focus on mobile devices, with a responsive web design that responds to the user’s behavior and environment based on screen size. … This technology will provide every user with a fantastic experience [from ]smartphones, tablet, laptop or desktop. It … uses Facebook Registration to allow visitors to sign up for YG Action updates via their Facebook profile.” www.ygaction.com
New Romney Ad Highlights Strong Debate Performance.
HAHAHAHA: Nancy Pelosi says Obama was better in debate on the radio. YG’s Take: We listened on our victrola… Obama still lost.
UNDERREPORTED: “We don’t know the details” of Romney’s tax plan, the president said during last week’s debate in Denver. “He won’t tell us.” However, the president’s tax plan is considerably vague. His plan for “taxes and the budget,” as outlined on his campaign’s website consists of two nebulous components—“Asking millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share” (raising taxes) and “Investing in the middle class” (more stimulus spending)—as well as a third (“Reducing the deficit by more than $4 trillion over the next decade”) that has been roundly dismissed as inaccurate. Independent experts estimate the real savings Obama has proposed amount to little more than $2 trillion over 10 years, the vast majority of which is achieved through tax increases.
Gallup: VP Debates Don’t Matter:… None of the eight vice presidential debates occurring from 1976 to 2008 appears to have meaningfully altered voter preferences.
LIBYA COULD BE KEY – BYRON YORK: “In a series of events that could not have been predicted just a few weeks ago, the day before the VP debate saw a significant addition to President Obama’s record. A House committee heard extensive testimony establishing that the Obama administration refused requests for heightened security from ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens and his aides, requests made just weeks before Stevens and three other Americans were murdered in a terrorist attack timed to coincide with the anniversary of September 11. House testimony also established beyond any doubt that Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, White House spokesman Jay Carney, and UN Ambassador Susan Rice all made untrue statements when they attributed the attack to angry protests over an anti-Muslim video.”
YG’s Take: Using the national debate stage to call attention to the Libya debacle would immediately shift the news cycle, and focus on Administration competence.
Gathering Steam – The Libya Debacle: “…..but it seems to me that the Obama administration has made a huge unforced error in trying to lay off blame for the Benghazi fiasco on the intelligence community. Because, wherever the buck stops when we get to end of this debacle, it’s not going to be in Langley, Va. (the CIA), Fort Meade, Md, (the National Security Agency), or any of the other centers of the American IC. Now, it seems, that Team Obama has decided to try and save U.N. ambassador Susan Rice — whose reputation in the IC could hardly be lower — and perhaps press secretary Jay Carney as well by tossing the nation’s spooks under the bus, in which direction they’re also nudging Hillary Clinton. But you can’t burn all your friends, and the Obama forces already have a lot fewer allies than they think they do.
“The Same Lie” – Charles Krauthammer: Hillary Clinton told the same lie about the YouTube movie inciting protests in front of the American embassy in Benghazi, and she did so while standing next to the coffin of Ambassador Chris Stevens and delivering a eulogy in his honor. Krauthammer also notes that President Obama repeated the line before the U.N. General Assembly, but that seems a more fitting venue for the regurgitation of such a lie.
UNION LAG: …with smaller memberships, less excitement and a languishing economy, unions aren’t guaranteed to be the help they once were (for Obama). It doesn’t help that Obama has at times disappointed labor on issues ranging from trade to environmental regulations to the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall vote… Despite the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision opening the door to direct and unlimited union (and corporate) contributions, several high-ranking union officials and Democratic operatives confirm that labor’s overall presidential race spending will likely be down from four or eight years ago. The Center for Responsive Politics found at least $206 million in political spending from unions in 2008, although that figure is incomplete because not all spending has to be disclosed. As a result, unions are taking a Moneyball-like political approach to maximize the effect of the money and muscle they do have. That may mean money goes to a congressional race or ballot initiative rather than to Obama. It also means that instead of spending big on TV ads like the outside groups helping Republican Mitt Romney, unions are preaching old-school political fundamentals: phone banking, door-knocking, member-to-member outreach.
NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll(s):
- Among independent likely voters in Florida, Romney has the support of 48% compared with 43% for Obama.
- Among women who are likely to vote, Obama garners 54% compared with 41% for Romney. Obama has gained support among women.
- 70% of voters under 30 support the president compared with 27% who back Romney. Obama — 49% — edges Romney — 44% — among those 30 to 44. Likely voters 45 to 59 tip toward Romney — 48% — over Obama — 45%. Among likely voters 60 and older, Romney — 53% — leads Obama — 44%.
- “Virginia has been moving Romney’s way, and that has continued post debate,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Among the three battleground states we’re looking at today — Virginia, Florida, and Ohio — Virginia is Romney’s best state.”
- 54% of women who are likely to vote support Obama compared with 42% for Romney. Romney receives 55% of men to 40% for Obama.
- Obama — 66% — leads Romney — 29% — among likely voters under 30. Obama has 48% of voters 30-49, compared to to 46% for Romney. Romney — 54% — is ahead of the president — 41% — among likely voters 45 to 59. Looking at likely voters 60 and older, 52% back Romney while 44% are for Obama.
- Among voters who indicate they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads Romney, 63% to 37%. If absentee voters are not included, the contest in Ohio is very competitive. Obama receives 48% to 46% for Romney.
- 54% of women who are likely to vote support the president while 42% are behind Romney. Among men who are likely to go to the polls, 47% are behind Obama while the same proportion — 47% — backs Romney.
- Likely voters under the age of 30 — 57% — favor Obama compared with 37% for Romney. Among those 30 to 44, Obama has the support of 53% compared with 42% for Romney. 48% of likely voters 45 to 59 are for the president while 46% back Romney. Likely voters 60 and older divide. 49% support Obama compared with 48% who are for Romney.
COLORADO: Romney 48 – Obama 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 51 – Romney 46
WISCONSIN: Obama 50 – Romney 47
- …More, voters, especially in Colorado and Virginia, say Romney cares about their needs and problems, but Obama still leads on this measure. Romney is ahead on leadership.
- Strong support among women and blacks keep Obama ahead in Virginia: women back him 56 – 40 percent while men back Romney 52 – 45 percent. Whites go Republican 59 – 38 percent while blacks go Democratic 93 – 3 percent. Independent likely voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.
- A 15-point gender gap marks the presidential race in Wisconsin as women back the president 53 – 43 percent, while men back Romney 51 – 46 percent. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama.
White Men Can’t Jump (But they Can Vote) – Reuters: For Romney, the support of white male voters offers the likeliest path to the presidency, even as betting on white men is proving an increasingly risky proposition for Republicans…. White male voters currently pose challenges for both campaigns. A smaller percentage of likely white male voters said it preferred Obama than voted for him in 2008. At the same time, a smaller percentage of white male voters also favors Romney than it did John McCain in his losing effort four years ago. If Romney does not improve on McCain’s performance among white men, the electorate’s second largest voting demographic after white women, he will likely repeat McCain’s fate, pollsters and demographers said. Obama faces similar odds: a huge dip in white male support could spell the end of his time in office. …Of course, gender and race offer only a simplified snapshot of the electorate. For instance, Obama leads among likely white male voters aged 18 to 29, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling The president’s advantage over Romney falls within the poll’s margin of error. The fathers and grandfathers of those young men greatly favor Romney: likely white male voters over 60 preferred the former Massachusetts governor to Obama by 62 percent to 26.3 percent during the week ending October 7.
The 19% – A Mobile World: The number of Americans saying they saw news or news headlines on social networking sites the previous day increased from 9% in 2010 to 19% today.
HOUSE RACE BUZZ
DCCC Pulls out of Boston, Philadelphia, & Chicago, via Roll Call: House Democrats cut more than $1 million in television time in the Philadelphia market today in addition to eliminating major reservations in Boston and Chicago, according to a Democrat who tracks media buys. The Philadelphia cancellation for Oct. 25-29 isn’t good news for two Democratic challengers running in districts covered by that pricey television market: Pennsylvania’s 8th district and New Jersey’s 3rd district.
IL-12- NANCY WHO? Are you going to look in the eyes of these people and take money from [House Minority Leader] Nancy Pelosi? At the last debate, when Bill Enyart said he hadn’t taken money from Nancy Pelosi, she was hosting a fundraiser for him in Washington, D.C.” [Said GOP young Gun Jason Plummer]. “If you’re not going to be honest with the voters when you’re asking for their vote, how are you going to treat them when you win?” Plummer added. Bill Enyart replied that he had no knowledge that Pelosi, D-California, was holding a fundraiser for him.
- Plummer focused on a message of bringing jobs to Illinois and said his businesses have employed more than 1,000 people in the Metro East. “I argue you send a small businessman to Washington, D.C.,” Plummer said.
PA-12: Embattled Democrat Mark Critz Ain’t No Moderate: Later, after Critz again stressed bipartisanship, Rothfus said Critz voted with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 95 percent of the time. “That’s an interesting moderate record,” quipped Rothfus. Rothfus, a Sewickley attorney, hit many of the same points he’s done throughout the campaign, insisting that President Barack Obama’s healthcare-reform law hurts the economy, devastates Medicare and must be repealed.
MA-6: Tempers Flare At Debate Over Tierney Scandal: If “spirited” could describe last night’s debate between John Tierney, Richard Tisei and Daniel Fishman, then “tame” may as well be the adjective used to describe the 6th Congressional District race to this point. Last night was raucous. Moderator David Olson, editor of The Salem News, struggled to control the crowd inside the auditorium at Danvers High School, as boos, shouts, insults, jeers and cheers were hurled up toward the stage with vigor and sometimes genuine anger. Fittingly, the subject that drew the most ire — from the crowd and candidates — was the tenor of the campaign itself….Tierney and the Democratic Party have launched ads calling Tisei a right-wing extremist, while Republican super PACs, and the Young Gun Network in particular, have been relentless in attacking the congressman about the illegal offshore gambling enterprise that ultimately sent his wife and brother-in-law to jail, while another brother-in-law remains a fugitive.
CA-21: Turnout the Key for Young Gun Valadao
THIS & THAT
Conspiracy Theories Abound: The headquarters of “evil genius” Big Bird in Obama ad is in…. Sarajevo,Bosnia Herzegovina. Why?
Maine Drivers Warned of Zombie Danger
Seize the day, beware of zombies…..